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Energy Prices (Mid October 2017)

Electricity:  

In its latest report the International Energy Agency said, “Taking 2018 as a whole, oil demand and non-OPEC production will grow by roughly the same volume and it is this current outlook that might act as the ceiling for aspirations of higher oil prices.”

Supply could be tightened due to scheduled nuclear plant outages in the UK in November – including one at the 1250 MW Sizewell B nuclear power station from the start of the month to early December. This could also add to french nuclear supply sensitivities and expectations of increasing UK exports then, potentially pushing up short-term prices.

Gas: 

Marex Spectron’s meteorology desk has predicted that, “While Indian Summer temperatures are possible over the next week or so, with the strongest winds over central and northern UK, into November there are signs that Atlantic blocking could divert the jet stream, leading to colder than normal temperatures across Europe and prevailing northerly winds over central Europe and eastern UK.”

Extending a moratorium on the process it imposed in 2015 Scotland has banned fracking indefinitely. Its shale gas reserves were previously described as “modest” by the British Geological Survey.

Summary position: 

Oil $56.04barrel

Coal $83.00/MT

EUA 17 €7.41/TCO2

Gas 46.25p/th Oct 17

Gas 45.30p/th Apr 18

Electricity £45.45/MWh Oct 17

Electricity £44.28/MWh Apr 18